25k SPY puts yolo (WSBlong)

https://i.redd.it/my4w1xvrrkne1.jpeg

created by chuggerbot on 09/03/2025 at 02:27 UTC

247 upvotes, 52 top-level comments (showing 25)

Been waiting for SPY to break below its lows since election to confirm my thoughts on where we are heading. Played puts early in the week and made a few K but sold. Was going to buy back in but hesitated and missed out. Finally bought back in and these were up, but decided I’d hold this time instead of sell like I did with my OG puts. Those OG puts hit 100% at the bottom Friday. So this time I decided to hold and we will see how that goes. Worst case scenario imo it could take till beginning of April to tank, but I figured I’d hop in now so I don’t miss out if it crawls down little by little till then.

Nobody knows obviously, but I feel pretty confident we’re heading down hard. In my opinion I know “this is different” is kind of getting memed, but I genuinely believe that to be the case. There has been an underlying system since WWII with America at the helm in many ways. There has been decades of role propositioning and reinforcement through reconstruction after the war. So many people talk about an “overvalued” market, when it really wasn’t in a relative sense of what American markets represented with reliability, certainty, and trust. I think SOME damage has already been done, and nothing is gonna change that for a long time. In my opinion it really just comes down to how much damage will ultimately be done. With that said, with this administration, and my own run away thoughts, I really can’t pin how far a drop I see as realistic, but obviously with my play I’m expecting around -3% from here absolute minimum.

Comments

Comment by VisualMod at 09/03/2025 at 02:27 UTC

1 upvotes, 0 direct replies

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Comment by Kollv at 09/03/2025 at 03:23 UTC

255 upvotes, 3 direct replies

Ladies and gentlemen, we have bottomed

img [IMG]

Comment by Rosie3435 at 09/03/2025 at 02:57 UTC

110 upvotes, 1 direct replies

Thank you for your service. The market will just wipe up and down and go no where for a month or so. After your contracts expire worthless, may see some decent downward action.

Comment by Apex_62 at 09/03/2025 at 04:24 UTC

41 upvotes, 1 direct replies

RN is it's so insane to say... But ODTEs make the most sense the way the market has been acting

Comment by DondeEstaMeGlasses at 09/03/2025 at 02:34 UTC

134 upvotes, 2 direct replies

Calls it is

Comment by Roaringtigger at 09/03/2025 at 04:07 UTC

19 upvotes, 2 direct replies

This is my play if we get a rip Monday

Comment by hennnyBee at 09/03/2025 at 02:33 UTC

34 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Goodluck brother 🫡

Comment by mmprotein at 09/03/2025 at 02:32 UTC

42 upvotes, 2 direct replies

should’ve waited till this weeks bull trap. good luck 🫡

Comment by Edz_ at 09/03/2025 at 03:15 UTC

33 upvotes, 3 direct replies

I remember the same post from wsb during the pandemic when they were yoloing spy 180 puts because they were sure the economy was fucked.

No one cares about how you "think" or "feel" especially the market.

This is not a long position market with the elevated volatility. Right now it's Donny Dump but tomorrow it can be Donny Pump.

The right way to make money on options is to buy puts when it rises too high and calls when it drops too fast.

Comment by fuglysc at 09/03/2025 at 03:55 UTC

15 upvotes, 5 direct replies

How much was SPY when you bought these puts? Around 570?

You're going to be in for some pain this week...we definitely getting a dead cat bounce and it may be a violent one....it's going to make you question whether or not to close these puts but history has shown that when SPY tests the 200 day SMA, it either plows straight through and continues for another 3% or so...or it will bounce and then is guaranteed to retest it again within a couple of weeks or so...and most likely break through it by a decent amount the second time around

But don't hold hope that we are going to crash 20%...despite what Trump has said, he does care about the stock market...and so does the Fed...so there is a Fed put and a Trump put to stop the markets from crashing

Comment by andytobbles at 09/03/2025 at 05:29 UTC

11 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Theoretically every single time the NASDAQ has closed below the 200DMA we are on the clock 2 weeks from now. If we drop 3.5% from the close in 2 weeks the market has turned bear every single time. If we hold above that 3.5% mark the market has proceeded to rally to ATHs everytime. Either way the market sold off incredibly fast this time around all things considered, I think we see a bounce to some extent.

Comment by avatar1314 at 09/03/2025 at 15:41 UTC

4 upvotes, 0 direct replies

It will print on Monday.

Comment by BRITISHSOV at 09/03/2025 at 23:54 UTC

4 upvotes, 0 direct replies

This shit is giong to print GG

Comment by Foreign-Coconut3500 at 09/03/2025 at 05:38 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

could have had a better entry

too easy

Comment by geb161 at 09/03/2025 at 07:03 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

Yup this is way too confident and well thought out, I’m not saying you’re wrong but I am saying it’s a bad trade regardless

Comment by SpiffyGolf at 09/03/2025 at 07:05 UTC

3 upvotes, 0 direct replies

We are so bullish now

Comment by Trader0721 at 09/03/2025 at 22:29 UTC

3 upvotes, 1 direct replies

I have 60 contracts on a few different strikes Apr 30 Puts…I think all this shit is going to hit harder than a lot of folks realize…I hate betting against the market but I’ve been setting up defensively …I’m still eating it just not nearly as bad…